Choosing Not To Run

Since 1900, only four presidents have decided not to run for an additional term even though they were constitutionally entitled to do so. What did they all have in common? They each assumed the presidency from the vice presidency, following the death of the president. Even after term limits were imposed after FDR, Presidents were allowed two "full" terms, but those who had served the end of a previous chief executive always declined. 

Teddy Roosevelt assumed the presidency upon the assassination of William McKinley, who was only six months into his second term. Completing the majority of McKinley's first term, he was elected on his own right in 1904 but in 1908 he declined to seek reelection after flirting with the idea of exceeding the two term precedent and running for a third. In a 1908 letter TR said, "if I had conscientiously felt at liberty to run again and try once more to hold this great office, I should greatly have liked to do so and keep my hands on the levers of this mighty machine." TR served 7 1/2 years total. 

Calvin Coolidge became president in 1923 after the death of Warren Harding, near the close of Harding's first term. Coolidge was then elected in 1924 and on the anniversary of the day he ascended to the Presidency he said, "It's four years ago today since I became president, if I take another term, I will be in the White House till 1933... Ten years in Washington is longer than any other man has had it -- too long!" Coolidge was characteristically understated in his announcement that he would not run in 1928. He wrote "I do not chose to run for president in 1928" on a single piece of paper, then had his short quote duplicated on several sheets that he personally cut into thin strips and then distributed to the press one by one, declining to give more information. He was president for 5 1/2 years. 

When Franklin Roosevelt died in April 1945, Harry S. Truman took the office about a year into FDR's fourth term. He squeaked out a victory in 1948 against Thomas Dewey, but by 1952 his approval ratings had reached all time lows for the office, around 22%. His name was on the ballot in the New Hampshire Primary of 1952, but he lost to Estes Kefauver, a huge blow to a sitting president. While he denied it, the defeat likely contributed to his decision soon thereafter not to run. Truman was president for 7 years. 

Lyndon Johnson became president after the assisination of JFK in November of 1963, completing the last year of Kennedy's term. His overwhelming election in 1964 bode well for him, however he would find his presidency in dire straits by 1968. Civil unrest, the unpopularity of the war in Vietnam and the emergence of peacenik candidates Eugene McCarthy and JFK's brother Robert Kennedy contributed to his decision to withdraw from the race in late March of 1968. On TV he famously declared, "I will not seek, and I will not accept the nomination of my party for another term as your president." However, by the Democratic Convention LBJ momentarily regretted his decision to bow out and considered rejoining the race because Hubert Humphrey, the apparent party nominee, was doing so poorly in national polls. Toying with the idea, LBJ shocked his intimates and baffled Humphrey, who felt that the President was selling him out to run in his stead. When a Harris poll showed Johnson running behind Nixon in a general election, he finally decided against it. LBJ was president for 5 1/2 years.

FDR & Pearl Harbor: Were We Caught With Our Pants Down?

The question of whether FDR had prior knowledge of Japan's pending attack on Pearl Harbor before December 7th 1941 has been long debated. Conspiracy theorists, much like after 911, have had a field day with this since that day that lives "in infamy", even accusing the President of devising the attack himself to draw the country into war. But is there any truth to this?

Mirroring its sudden assault against Russia in 1905, Japan was known to attack sneakily and December 7th was just that -- that day FDR was famously asked "how did we get caught with our pants down?" The President didn't have an answer. It was, in effect, an intelligence failure since the US did have critical information that might have been used to predict Japan's move in Hawii, however the information was too convoluted and often dismissed, held by too many different people in different agencies to be put together in time to predict Japan's strike target. 

Here is a timeline of the intelligence collecting process in 1941: 

1. A diplomat reported early that year that Japan had chosen Pearl Harbor as a target if the US caused any trouble for their empire. However, the diplomat also described it as "fantastic". 
2. The State Department warned prior to September 1941 that embargoes of Japan would lead to the US "getting involved in war," however, the US proceeded with an oil embargo. 
3. A US double agent had advised FBI director J. Edgar Hoover that the Japanese had studied the logistics of effective air raids in Italy, forecasting that it was planning an attack.
4. The same double agent revealed that he was instructed to monitor Pearl Harbor and report details about torpedo protection nets, amongst other US defenses. 
5. British XX (Double Cross Committee) Chairman JC Masterman concluded that Pearl Harbor would be the first target in the event of war between the US and Japan. He did not communicate this conclusion to the US.
6. J. Edgar Hoover dismissed the information in point #3 and #4 and and never reported it to the President. 
7. A decoded message from the Japanese revealed that it would not be "strangled" if the US did not meet their deadline for signing an agreement on the embargo. It also said that "things are automatically going to happen" after the deadline passed. This was forwarded to the President.
8. FDR met with his War Council, warning that the Japanese may attack as early as Dec. 1, without warning. War Secretary Henry Stimson wrote that, "the question was how to maneuver them into the position of firing the first shot without allowing too much danger to ourselves."
9. Admiral Stark hi-lighted numerous potential targets for attack for the President, however they did not include Pearl Harbor. The attack site was expected to be elsewhere.
10. FDR chose to keep a coded decrypt that included Japans cables to Germany, predicting that War was about to break out. 
11. The Chief of Naval Intelligence intercepted arial views of Pearl Harbor that had been sent to Japan, but didn't relay the information to the President, believing that the Japanese were using the photos to ascertain how quickly the US would respond to an attack in Southeast Asia. 
12. FDR appealed directly to Emperor Hirohito to restore amity between the two nations.
13. The Army and Navy had split code breaking responsibilities alternating the responsibility day to day, on December 6th, the Army was left to decode a message intercepted by the Navy, which wasted precious time. 
14. When the message was finally decoded, it was promptly sent to the White House. Given to a young Lieutenant on his second day on the job, it was finally delivered it to FDR who reflected aloud, "this means war". The cable did not include a target or that the attack would come the following day. 
15. A final cable was decoded on December 7th showing an impending attack but officials concluded that it implied an attack on the Phillippines. The message was delayed because General Marshall was on his routine Sunday horseback ride. Further delaying its distribution was the fact that it was sent to Manilla, first, then to the Panama Canal, and then to Hawii. By the time word of this cable arrived at Pearl Harbor, it was too late. 

President Roosevelt knew that Japan planned to attack, but didn't know where. While the US had information about Pearl Harbor, it never reached FDR in a way that would have made a material difference in our War preparedness. For more, read Joseph E. Persico's book Roosevelt's Secret War.

The Tax Debate, Circa 1980

Tax debate flashback: Reagan vs. Bush during the 1980 Primaries. Reagan: "Government does not tax to get the money it needs, government always needs the money it gets." Around 7:40:

The Biggest Loser, Electorally Speaking...

If you look back at the last 110 years of Presidential elections, many point to Ronald Reagan's overwhelming defeat of Walter Mondale in 1984 as the biggest landslide of all time. Indeed, Mondale did take a shellacking, winning only one state (his own) with the District of Columbia (basically a Democratic consolation prize) receiving a mere 13 electoral votes to Reagan's 525. 

With only 2.4% of the electoral vote, Mondale's electoral count sets the pretty bar low. However, he can rest assured that he was not the biggest loser in a modern Presidential election, electorally speaking. That unique title goes to the long forgotten Republican candidate of 1936, Alf Landon.

Alf Landon was the governor of Kansas when he was nominated to run a fools errand campaign against the ever-popular Franklin Roosevelt in 1936. The reason for his nomination? He was the only Republican governor to have been re-elected in the midterms of 1934, which an overwhelming Democratic year. Unfortunately for the Kansas Governor, the underwhelming campaign was doomed from the start, even the leadership of his own party even referred to him as "the poor man's Coolidge".

In the end, Landon did win 2 states, Maine and Vermont, which was one state more than Mondale. But the electoral vote count only added to 8 (to FDR's 523), which is 4 less than Mondale, a mere 1.5% of the electoral vote total compared to Mondale’s 2.4%. Each calculated against its respective total electoral vote count.