WE GOT HIM: Osama Bin Laden is Dead

The key to last night's triumphant news was an Al-Qaeda courier who worked closely with Osama Bin Laden. The courier, who's name has not yet been released, first came to light through Guantanamo detainees but was only identified by his nickname. His real name was not discovered until 2007, and it took US intelligence another two years to track him down in Pakistan in 2009. Then in August of 2010, US agents were able to link him to the compound outside Islamabad, in Abbottabad, where Bin Laden was being harbored. 

Nearly 10 years after the September 11th attacks, justice was carried out when US Special Forces shot Bin Laden in the left eye during a firefight on the compound. Unlike the capture of Sadsam Hussein in Iraq in 2003, Bin Laden is reported to have resisted during the confrontation with US troops. 

The remarkable success is a testament to the continuity of efforts of two administrations, the CIA through four different Directors and a covert operation that remained secret until an hour before President Obama's announcement to the nation last night. Historians will also note that the event was exactly 8 years to the day (May 1st) of President Bush's "Mission Accomplished" speech on Iraq, and exactly 66 years after the announcement of Hitler's death on May 1st of 1945. 

We will undoubtably hear more about the strike in Pakistan, but below are select quotes from the White House press call with Senior Administration Officials about the covert operation:

One courier in particular had our constant attention.  Detainees gave us his nom de guerre or his nickname and identified him as both a protégé of Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, the mastermind of September 11th, and a trusted assistant of Abu Faraj al-Libbi, the former number three of al Qaeda who was captured in 2005.

     Detainees also identified this man as one of the few al Qaeda couriers trusted by bin Laden.  They indicated he might be living with and protecting bin Laden.  But for years, we were unable to identify his true name or his location.

     Four years ago, we uncovered his identity, and for operational reasons, I can’t go into details about his name or how we identified him, but about two years ago, after months of persistent effort, we identified areas in Pakistan where the courier and his brother operated.  Still we were unable to pinpoint exactly where they lived, due to extensive operational security on their part.  The fact that they were being so careful reinforced our belief that we were on the right track. 

     Then in August 2010, we found their residence, a compound in Abbottabad, Pakistan, a town about 35 miles north of Islamabad.  The area is relatively affluent, with lots of retired military.  It’s also insolated from the natural disasters and terrorist attacks that have afflicted other parts of Pakistan.  When we saw the compound where the brothers lived, we were shocked by what we saw -- an extraordinarily unique compound.  The compound sits on a large plot of land in an area that was relatively secluded when it was built.  It is roughly eight times larger than the other homes in the area.

     When the compound was built in 2005, it was on the outskirts of the town center, at the end of a narrow dirt road.  In the last six years, some residential homes have been built nearby.  The physical security measures of the compound are extraordinary.  It has 12- to 18-foot walls topped with barbed wire.  Internal wall sections -- internal walls sectioned off different portions of the compound to provide extra privacy.  Access to the compound is restricted by two security gates, and the residents of the compound burn their trash, unlike their neighbors, who put the trash out for collection. 

     The main structure, a three-story building, has few windows facing the outside of the compound.  A terrace on the third floor has a seven-foot wall privacy -- has a seven-foot privacy wall.

     It’s also noteworthy that the property is valued at approximately $1 million but has no telephone or Internet service connected to it.  The brothers had no explainable source of wealth. 

     Intelligence analysts concluded that this compound was custom built to hide someone of significance.  We soon learned that more people were living at the compound than the two brothers and their families.  A third family lived there -- one whose size and whose makeup matched the bin Laden family members that we believed most likely to be with Osama bin Laden.  Our best assessment, based on a large body of reporting from multiple sources, was that bin Laden was living there with several family members, including his youngest wife. 

     Everything we saw -- the extremely elaborate operational security, the brothers’ background and their behavior, and the location and the design of the compound itself was perfectly consistent with what our experts expected bin Laden’s hideout to look like.  Keep in mind that two of bin Laden’s gatekeepers, Khalid Sheikh Mohammed and Abu Faraj al-Libbi, were arrested in the settled areas of Pakistan. 

Our analysts looked at this from every angle, considering carefully who other than bin Laden could be at the compound.  We conducted red team exercises and other forms of alternative analysis to check our work.  No other candidate fit the bill as well as bin Laden did.

So the final conclusion, from an intelligence standpoint, was twofold.  We had high confidence that a high-value target was being harbored by the brothers on the compound, and we assessed that there was a strong probability that that person was Osama bin Laden.

Obama & Trump: Back to Back Press Conferences

In an apparent bow to the pressure mounting about his birth certificate, President Obama released a long-form certificate from Hawaii this morning and then held an impromptu press conference on the matter. 

But the problem for Obama this morning wasn't the issue at hand, it was the optics -- the President interrupted Donald Trump's Portsmouth New Hampshire press conference, allowing Donald Trump to appear to have parity with him. Even further, he acknowledged Trump as a compeditor, as he began with the joke, "Let me just comment that I can't get the networks to break in on all kinds of other discussions. I was just back there listening to Trump who was saying it's amazing that he's not going to be talking about national security. I would not have the networks breaking in if I was talking about that, Chuck, and you know it."

Ben Smith of Politico said that "the move suggests White House pollsters saw real danger to Obama here, and saw the distraction as hurting him more than Republicans. It's also a remarkable concession to the kind of freakshow politics that this White House disdains, but has found itself unable to ignore."

Much like the first Kennedy-Nixon debate elevated Kennedy to the level of the then-Vice President, the dueling press conferences elevated Trump, strengthening the perception that he is a real contender, as the split screen images from the networks suggest.

Furthermore, the timing of the White House's move allowed Trump to take responsibility for prompting its release. Even if this puts the whole "birther" issue to bed, Trump can tout this event as an accomplishment, as it appears that he put Obama on the defensive. While many think a Trump candidacy is a "gift," it may be at their own peril. 

O'Reilly's Interview with Obama: Hating the President & Nixon's Farewell Advice

Much has been made of Bill O'Reilly's "people hate you" question in his super-bowl Sunday interview with President Obama. Obama's reaction was satisfactory, "The people who dislike you don’t know you," but he could have made a greater impact and quoted a line from Richard Nixon's 1974 farewell speech : "Always give your best, never get discouraged, never be petty; always remember, others may hate you, but those who hate you don't win unless you hate them, and then you destroy yourself." At 17:45:

 O'Reilly's interview can be viewed here, the question is at 12:02:

Obama Channels Eisenhower

President Obama's State of the Union speech made every attempt to stress the importance of education and innovation as a means of "winning the future," which is a message not unlike former President Dwight D. Eisenhower's State of the Union in 1958. 

The US was caught by surprise with launch of Sputnik in 1957 -- an event that began the space race and put a emphasis on the technological capacities of the two great superpowers. Calling this challenge "a different kind of war," then-president Eisenhower took it upon himself to boost America's future potential in the fields of science and math so as to empower the nation to compete internationally. In his 1958 State of the Union he emphasized the need for more than just military power alone:

We must never become so preoccupied with our desire for military strength that we neglect those areas of economic development, trade, diplomacy, education, ideas and principles where the foundations of real peace must be laid.

The challenge, as Eisenhower put it was, "not our strength today; it is rather the vital necessity of action today to ensure our strength tomorrow," a theme not unlike Obama's concept of "winning the future".