Gary Hart's Meteoric Fall in the 1988 Primaries

24 years ago, one time Democratic frontrunner Gary Hart abruptly dropped out of the 1988 Presidential race. Besieged by negative press, the campaign had lasted only three weeks -- an implosion caused by a newspaper stakeout, a careless candidate and a photograph that suggested an extra-marital affair with a woman 20 years his junior. 

Hart's nightmare candidacy began with several unconfirmed murmurs of infidelity. When questioned about the rumors, Hart took a defiant approach, playing chicken with the press, even daring reporters to tail him. 

Famous last words. Watch this clip to see how the events unfolded:

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Outraged, Hart's defiance in the face of the evidence drew parallels to Richard Nixon's classic "blame the press" disposition. Nixon himself even reached out to Hart following his departure from the race, telling him that "They demand to ruthlessly question the ethics of anyone else, but when anyone else dares to question their ethics, they hide behind the shield of freedom of speech.''

A New (Photoshopped) Look at the White House Situation Room Photo

Maybe now we know why Hillary Clinton's hand was at her mouth: 

The above was made by my sister, Charlotte. Check out her real photos on her flickr photostream here. And if you liked this, check out her Charlie Sheen Meets the Parents Video.

Assessing the Importance of the Early States in the 2012 GOP Primaries

Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina have long been the key to victory for any candidate seeking to win their party's nomination for President, but the path to victory often differs from election to election. The conventional wisdom, as espoused by John McCain in 2008, is that a candidate needs to win two of the three first contents in order to secure the nomination. 

Historically, the winner of the first two states have varied in all of the last five open republican election cycles, 1980, '88, '96, '00 and '08, with New Hampshire rejecting the winner of the Iowa Caucus for an alternate candidate. This may speak to the differences in the electorates in the two states, with Iowa's more culturally conservative voters and New Hampshire's focus on small government, but one thing is made clear by this fact: the South Carolina Primary has emerged as the most essential primary state for the GOP.

The numbers show as much. Since 1980, the winner of Iowa has gone on to win the nomination in 2 of 5 of those years and 3 of 5 for the winner of NH, while the winner of South Carolina has won the nomination in every open contest since 1980, a 100% success rate vs. only 40% or 60% for the first two.

South Carolina is likely to be a tie-breaker again in 2012, and all serious Republican candidates in 2012 will need to have a "firewall" strategy for winning, as victory or defeat there will make or break their campaign. 

A most exciting anomaly that pundits and political junkies have never seen in a modern election would be either one candidate sweeping all three, or three different candidate each taking only one of these first three states -- an unlikely, but exciting possibility in 2012. 

The Empire State Building Turned 80: See Al Smith & FDR at the 1931 Ribbon Cutting

May 1st marked another anniversary in US history, the 80th year since the Empire State Building was completed.

Constructed at the start of the Great Depression, the iconic 102 story building was erected under the supervision of former Governor Al Smith, who had became president of Empire State Inc. after his failed White House bid against Herbert Hoover in 1928. The working-class former Governor, who had pulled himself up from his bootstraps, was bitter in defeat and was equally perturbed that Franklin Roosevelt, a blue blooded aristocrat, had squeaked by to become his successor as Governor of New York.

Al Smith appeared to temporarily bury the hatchet when they both attended the the ribbon cutting ceremony in 1931. There was an amusing moment when a member of the press shouted "Governor". To which Smith replied, "Yes? Which one?" See it below: